AI Demand Is Booked Through 2028. The Financing Is Not.
ASML says customers want more machines than it can build through 2028, while Volta’s data center loan heads for at least 11 percent, Microsoft scales its own chips and PJM leans on emergency measures to keep the lights on.
Today’s Signals
- ASML says its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030.
- Volta’s $5 billion loan for a Norway data center is expected to price this week at 11% or more, anchored by a $1.5 billion Apollo order, Semafor reports.
- Seven banks arranged an extra 15 billion ringgit, about $3.7 billion, for DayOne’s Johor data center campus, doubling that financing to 30 billion ringgit.
- Microsoft says its Maia chips will reach multi-gigawatt deployments on Azure, with a Maia 300 rack delivering up to seven times the token throughput of a Maia 200 rack.
- PJM extended its Maximum Generation Alert through October 14 and called on demand response, with about 61,000 megawatts of generation out of service on Tuesday.
The Big Story
Yesterday the chip sellers said money was the constraint. Today the company that makes the lithography machines behind the most advanced chips said demand is running ahead of what it can build. ASML reported record quarterly sales of 11.7 billion euros and said its planned supply for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand. Some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030, and ASML is looking at ways to add capacity for 2028 beyond the 30 percent increase it had already announced. It now expects 44 to 45 billion euros in sales this year. The cash backs up the words. Money customers have paid or been billed before delivery, which ASML books as long-term contract liabilities, rose to 9.3 billion euros at the end of September after four quarters near 3.5 billion. That reframes this week’s capital worries. The buyers furthest upstream are committing cash for 2028 and beyond; the strain sits downstream, where developers borrow against chips and leases. Both are true: tool supply sets the long-run ceiling, and the price of money decides which projects get to the front of the line.
AI and Data Centers
The hyperscalers’ answer to scarce supply is to get more out of every watt with their own silicon. Microsoft detailed its Maia 300 inference chip at the Open Compute Project summit and said the Maia program will reach multi-gigawatt deployments on Azure. A rack holds 96 chips and, by Microsoft’s account, delivers up to seven times the token throughput of a Maia 200 rack with 2.5 times the performance per watt. When power is scarce, output per watt sets how much AI a campus can sell. The chip is built on TSMC’s 2-nanometer process, The Next Platform reports, which ties Microsoft’s plans straight back to the tool supply ASML says is short. Samsung and SK hynix rebounded in Seoul on Wednesday, and TSMC reports Thursday.
Money
Downstream, money is available but expensive. Volta’s $5 billion loan for a Norway data center is expected to price this week at 11 percent or more, anchored by a $1.5 billion order from Apollo, Semafor reports. One term stands out: Volta’s rate would fall if Anthropic, which has signed a six-year compute agreement at the site, wins an investment-grade credit rating. Lenders are pricing the tenant, not the building. Asia’s bank market looks deeper. Seven banks, including DBS, Maybank and Standard Chartered, arranged an extra 15 billion ringgit, about $3.7 billion, for DayOne’s Johor campus in Malaysia. DayOne is also in talks on a $500 million bond, which would be one of Asia Pacific’s first data center bonds. Industrial capital is moving into the hardware layer, too. Adani Enterprises and Jabil signed a non-binding agreement for a 50:50 Indian venture to build AI racks, servers, cooling systems and transformers.
Energy & Power
The grid keeps reminding everyone who holds the switch. PJM, which runs the grid for several East Coast and Midwest states, extended its Maximum Generation Alert through October 14, called on demand response and recalled all generation maintenance outages from noon Wednesday, with about 61,000 megawatts of generation offline Tuesday during unusually warm weather. A federal emergency order still lets PJM move data centers onto backup power as a last resort. Developers aren’t waiting for the wires. Enerflex won a contract for more than one gigawatt of on-site gas generation for an unnamed North American data center, lifting its backlog above 1.75 gigawatts with deliveries through 2028. Google’s energy policy head told Politico that utilities quote five and sometimes ten years for grid service. On-site gas is the bridge, and for some sites, the plan.
Government Power
Regulators are sorting out who gets to cut the power. FERC rejected PJM’s proposal to curtail new large loads that don’t bring their own supply during shortfalls, saying retail sales belong to the states, The Hill reports. That moves the curtailment fight to state commissions. Elsewhere, governments are courting compute on home soil. Japan’s digital minister said Tokyo asked Anthropic to consider a Japanese data center and is willing to support it, as NTT weighs a project of roughly 1 trillion yen in Osaka, Kyodo reports. India’s C-DAC invited providers to supply up to 10,000 AI compute units under the IndiaAI Mission, with all data and backups kept in India. Ireland’s Supreme Court refused an appeal against a 1.6 billion euro, 200 megawatt campus near Ennis, ending the legal fight, though the site still needs a grid connection.
Startup and Small Business Signal
Two openings stand out. When a loan’s price hinges on a tenant’s credit rating, tools that model tenant credit, GPU residual value and lease structures have buyers. And the on-site power wave needs more than turbines. Firms that handle permitting, controls, gas contracts and maintenance for behind-the-meter generation are selling into a backlog that runs through 2028. A small company can’t build a lithography tool, but it can help a gigawatt site switch on sooner.
AMP Bottom Line
The AMP2 read: demand isn’t the question anymore. ASML’s customers are paying ahead and asking to reserve machines for 2029 and 2030. What decides who builds is further down the stack: the rate on the loan, the credit of the tenant and how fast power arrives. The projects that win the next two years will lock in all three before the chips show up, and TSMC’s guidance Thursday is the next read on how long that window stays open.