Northwest Drafts Multi-GW Build Around AI Load Uncertainty as Hyperscaler Credit Flashes Yellow
While Washington still lacks a statute on who pays for AI power, a Sunday Pacific Northwest feature puts extreme data-center load uncertainty at the center of a multi-GW draft power plan – even as Apollo flags widening hyperscaler credit default swaps and European utilities lock co-located AI campuses.
Today’s Signals
- PNW Draft Plan – Northwest Power Council draft Ninth Plan targets ~9 GW renewables, 5 GW storage, ~2.1 GW gas; comments through Oct 16.
- Apollo CDS Yellow – Hyperscaler CDS gap vs banks ~60 bp; Slok says markets are repricing debt-financed AI capex fundamentals.
- PPC-AWS Greece – Binding MoU for 300 MW Agios Dimitrios campus; AWS 15-year lease; path to explore 1 GW.
- MDATA-Sunly Estonia – Magnora Data Center takes 50% of Risti Kampus (180 MW phase 1, path to 400 MW) beside renewables and BESS.
- CleanSpark Calendar – $2.276B Meta-tied notes still priced at 7.875%/98.5%; close targeted Sep 25, not yet funded.
The Big Story
Sunday, the Pacific Northwest put a number on the AI power problem Congress still will not settle. A Seattle Times report carried by the Spokesman-Review walks through the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s draft Ninth Power Plan for Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana: the region may need 40% to 100% more electricity over two decades, and data centers are the biggest swing factor. The Council’s August draft already sketches a build pace the Northwest has not seen in decades – about 9,000 MW of renewables, 5,000 MW of storage, and 2,100 MW of natural gas in the near-term portfolio, with public comments open through October 16. Council voices warn data centers will connect first and could claim scarce transmission and cheap renewables ahead of EV and building electrification. That is not a federal statute. It is a regional planning system forced to size concrete gigawatts under a forecast band wider than Seattle’s average load – while Washington still lacks a who-pays law.
AI
The capacity race did not pause for the Senate calendar. Greece’s PPC and Amazon Web Services signed a binding memorandum for a data center at the former Agios Dimitrios site in Western Macedonia: AWS would take a 15-year leasehold; PPC would supply the site, buildings, and energy infrastructure; first phase is 300 MW of incoming power, with intent to explore expansion up to 1 GW – subject to definitive agreements, grid connection, and approvals. Farther north, Magnora Data Center ASA took a 50% stake with Sunly in Estonia’s Risti Kampus: 180 MW phase 1 with a path to 400 MW, beside a planned park with 244 MWp solar, 144 MW of batteries, and 44 MW of wind in development. Different continents, same bargain – power access first, then the AI factory.
Money
Credit markets are writing their own footnote under yesterday’s CleanSpark coupon. Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok argued the widening in hyperscaler credit default swaps is not a dealer-hedge story: bank CDS has sat near about 40 basis points while Apollo’s basket – Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle – opened a gap of roughly 60 basis points from near zero since October 2025, per CNBC’s read of the research. Markets are repricing debt-financed AI capex, rising leverage, negative free cash flow, and uncertain payback on gear that depreciates fast. FactSet figures cited with the note put Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta deep in negative free-cash-flow territory while Microsoft stays positive. CleanSpark’s $2.276 billion of 7.875% notes at 98.500% are still only priced, close targeted September 25.
Power
The Northwest draft is a physical answer to a political stall. Beyond the headline renewables and storage targets, the Council is managing forecast risk with annual reassessment, leaning on efficiency if demand undershoots, and acknowledging that if the grid cannot keep up, some proposed data centers may never energize – a self-leveling effect. Regulators and lawmakers in the region are talking about requiring data centers to cut or shift load at times, echoing last week’s industry flexibility-for-interconnection pitch. Separately, DOE’s short PJM emergency order authorizing backup generation at large loads covered only September 17-18; no readable after-action report yet shows whether any campus diesels were actually directed to run. Planners keep sizing. Operators keep inventing tools. Congress still has not assigned the bill.
Government Power
The federal fork from Thursday’s dual unanimous-consent blocks is still open – and still statute-free. President Trump said Friday he is talking with Majority Leader John Thune about a floor path for the House-passed Ratepayer Protection Act (H.R. 9340, 417-3), without guaranteeing votes before the pre-midterm recess. House Problem Solvers Caucus co-chairs separately urged Thune and Schumer to advance the bill, which would make state commissions consider – not adopt – standards that large loads cover incremental grid costs. Trade coverage notes analysts already see the federal text as somewhat behind state practice in Virginia, Texas, and Ohio. Heinrich wants harder FERC teeth; Husted wants the House compromise now. Midterms keep the calendar. Agencies keep writing large-load rules. Voters keep asking who pays.
AMP Bottom Line
Washington is still arguing over who pays for AI power. The Northwest is already arguing over how much to build when the AI load forecast can swing by a factor that dwarfs a major city. Credit markets are pricing who bears the risk if the debt-financed capex cycle misses. The tension is not awareness. It is sequence: politics waits for a statute, planners must pick gigawatts now, and CDS spreads do not wait for either.